claude

decision-science-skills

Decision discipline under uncertainty: pre-mortem (with the counsel rail), tabletop wargaming and no-win drills under full exercise control, weak-signal navigation with cue-graded confidence, Bayesian updating via natural frequencies, reference-class forecasting, competing hypotheses analysis, minority-report dissent capture, the Rashomon-effect protocol for conflicting recollections, and The Challenger.

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Plugin decision-science-skills from marketplace treasury-analyst-skills in CatCorner22/Claude_Skills_2. Commands read from the repo's manifest — 6 days ago.

What it installs

Skills (10)

  • bayesian-updating

    Runs belief revision as a decision discipline: starts a question from an explicit prior (base-rate anchor from reference-class-forecasting), weighs each piece of evidence by how surprising it would be under each hypothesis, updates with count tables or the odds shortcut, not formulas, grades evidenc

  • competing-hypotheses-analysis

    Weighs rival explanations against the same body of evidence using Heuer's structured competing-hypotheses method from intelligence analysis: brainstorm the full hypothesis set including unlikely and deception hypotheses, list the significant evidence, build the hypothesis matrix (hypotheses across t

  • minority-report

    Runs a precognition cell over any decision: builds three to five named, internally coherent, structurally different future scenarios (Shell-lineage scenario planning; never best/expected/worst on one axis), turns one variable at a time to find which single change flips the outcome ranking, and alway

  • no-win-drills

    Runs a no-win drill (a simulation with the winning move removed, as practiced in emergency-medicine patient-death scenarios and EMS stress training) and grades the decision process, never the outcome: the LLM generates a situation guaranteeing no clean exit, plays the escalating environment, then de

  • pre-mortem

    Runs Gary Klein's pre-mortem (the prospective-hindsight exercise) on a plan before commitment: declare that the plan has already failed outright, have every participant silently and independently write reasons why, round-robin the reasons until exhausted, rank them, and strengthen the plan against t

  • rashomon-effect

    Reconciles contradictory good-faith accounts of one event (witness statements, incident write-ups, contested post-mortems) using Rashomon-effect scholarship and eyewitness-memory science: takes each account whole (cognitive-interview moves) before comparing, splits accounts into observations, interp

  • reference-class-forecasting

    Applies the outside view (Kahneman/Tversky's planning fallacy, Flyvbjerg's reference-class method) to discipline any material estimate: identify a reference class of comparable past cases, establish its outcome distribution, anchor on that base rate, adjust only with explicit written justification,

  • tabletop-wargaming

    Designs and runs a multi-party tabletop exercise with an adversary and adjudication, in the lineage Kriegsspiel → Army course-of-action analysis (action / reaction / counteraction) → CISA-style tabletop packages: define objectives and scenario (an impersonated urgent instruction, a critical-vendor o

  • the-challenger

    Runs the revision review momentum and sunk costs suppress, named for the 1986 Challenger launch decision, where schedule fever inverted the burden of proof over the engineers' objection. When evidence changes mid-project, it zero-bases the continue-vs-revise decision: only forward-looking costs coun

  • weak-signal-navigation

    Estimates a current position or state when the usual instrument (a dashboard, tracker, status report, or data feed) is down, stale, or untrusted, by fusing many weak independent cues (last known-good state, scheduled events that must have fired, historical rhythms, side channels, absence of expected

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Claude Code craft for working engineers: authoring Agent Skills (the library's own standard), prompt engineering with the injection-defense doctrine, git/code review with run-verified agent traps, the Board of Advisors multi-agent code review (board-review + five specialist subagents and a chair), defect-epidemiology (treat a confirmed bug as evidence about a population), rule-stress-testing, software-archaeology, Comrade Engineer's pencil pass, The Foreman's draw inspection, the Creative Workaround Genius (another route when the obvious one fails, never around a control), the project-manager subagent with its skill for multi-session and multi-agent work (requirement ledger, token budget, exhaustive QC sweep), Puppet Master (the whole job on the fewest tokens with no loss of quality: fewer turns, small new context, a transcript audit), and Chicken Little (Aether) — the multi-domain persona with forward-deployed advisor and compiler autopsy modes.

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The improvement methods with teeth: DMAIC with a fully worked control-chart project (provisional-limits discipline included), FMEA with the evidence-gated Action Priority table, measurement systems analysis extended to LLM-as-judge gauge studies, design of experiments, evolutionary operation (EVOP), root cause analysis, and the project command center doctrine.

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Statistical inference done honestly, causal inference (DAGs, DiD/IV/RDD), A/B test design (SRM, peeking, MDE, variance reduction), survey and sampling design (total survey error, nonresponse), spreadsheet modeling discipline, and assertion-evidence presentations with a build-and-lint toolchain.

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Applied machine learning with honest evaluation: project framing (the leanest model is no model), supervised modeling, feature engineering, model evaluation (threshold as a fitted parameter), time-series forecasting with horizon-aware backtest sizing and measured interval coverage, and anomaly detection with the degenerate-case floor.

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Safety engineering for records, alarms, and dormant protections: split-tally evidence design with the litigation-hold rail, detection-system tuning by empirical disposition audit (floor-ceiling autoimmunity band), reliability math including probability-of-failure-on-demand for dormant protective functions, rebuild rehearsal with an irreversibility screen, break-glass playbooks, and hash-rank sortition review.

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